A new phase of the epidemic has currently emerged in Italy, with a consecutive increase in cases over the last 10 weeks and, for the first time, signs of significant critical issues relating to the spread of the virus in our country.
A considerable load on the national territorial services was observed, which must be monitored for its potential impact on welfare services.
At the same time, measures are being strengthened, particularly with regard to the use of masks in outdoor areas.
It is necessary to avoid events and initiatives presenting a risk of assembly in public and private places. It is also mandatory to consciously adopt strict individual behaviours (particularly, physical distancing and the use of masks), in order to limit the risk of transmission and avoid a further and more rapid worsening of the epidemic.
- An analysis of the data for the period from September 28 to October 4, 2020 is provided below. Due to the time between exposure to the pathogen and the development of symptoms and between these and the diagnosis and subsequent notification, many of the cases reported this week are likely to have contracted the infection in September. Some of the cases identified by screening, however, may have contracted the infection in earlier periods.
- The virus is now circulating throughout the country. The number of new cases reported in Italy for the tenth consecutive week continues to increase, with a cumulative incidence (ISS flow data) in the last 14 days of 44.37 per 100,000 inhabitants (period 21/9 – 4/10), (vs 34.2 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 14/9 – 27/9). There is also an increase in the number of symptomatic cases in the same period (8,198 symptomatic cases in the period 21/9 – 4/10 vs 6,650 symptomatic cases in the period 14/9 – 27/9).
- There are 17 Regions/PPAA that reported an increase in the number of cases diagnosed, compared to the previous week (ISS flow). The percentage of new cases that were detected through contact tracing activities fell (31.8% of new cases vs. 35.8 the previous week). On the other hand, the percentage of new cases detected through screening activities increased (33.2% vs. 28.2%). 29.1% of new cases were detected through the appearance of symptoms and 5.9% were not reported.
- In the period September 17 – 30 2020, the Rt calculated on symptomatic cases has been 1.06 (95% CI: 0.97 – 1.16). For details on the methods of calculation and interpretation of the Rt reported, please refer to the detailed information available on the website of the Italian Higher Institute of Health.
- A total of 3,805 active outbreaks were reported, of which 1,181 new (the adopted definition of outbreak foresees the identification of 2 or more positive cases linked to each other), both increasing for the tenth consecutive week (in the previous week of monitoring, 3,266 active outbreaks were reported, of which 909 new).
- Outbreaks were reported in almost all provinces (104/107). Most of these outbreaks continue to occur at home (77.6%). The percentage of outbreaks detected in recreational activities continued to drop (4.1% vs. 4.5% the previous week).
- This week there has been a slight increase in the number of outbreaks, where transmission could have occurred in schools. However, there is still a limited transmission rate of 2.5%, out of all the new outbreaks for which the transmission context was reported.
- The number of new cases outside the transmission chains continues to increase. 4,041 cases where no epidemiological link could be found have been reported (3,026 the previous week).
- At a national level, the number of people hospitalised continues to rise (3,287 vs. 2,846 in the medical area, 303 vs. 254 in intensive care on 4/10 and 27/9, respectively). By consequence, employment rates in the medical area and in intensive care are increasing.